December 2013 Core Strategy Pre-trade Analysis

Friday December 13th 7:30 AM Posted in: Daily Blog

Once a month, Options-Intelligence uses its vast options trading history to generate key statistics for our Core Options Trading Strategy members. These statistics are designed to arm option trades with invaluable information and insight into the the trends and expectations for the upcoming option trading cycle.

Historical Option Performance for December

December has proven to be somewhat of a  difficult month for the Core Strategy and this year's analysis is no different. A brief look at all Core trades for the month of December shows some real  strength from 2003-2008, but definite weakness since 2009. Based on our overall understanding of the Core's success rate, it is easy to see why we are leery of this month.

December lifetime winning history at common returns

Return Winning History
10% 78%
20% 73%
30% 68%
40% 60%
50% 50%
75% 34%
100% 24%

Historically successful December option picks

Stock # of Trades Winning History Average Return
AAPL 5 80% 25%
AMZN 8 88% 68%
BRCM 6 67% 42%
DIA 11 73% 67%
EBAY 6 83% 121%
GOOG 5 100% 50%
IBM 10 80% 43%
INTC 4 100% 82%
QQQ 10 90% 60%

Statistical Expectations for December

We expect the Core Strategy to be a tough call this December. Note the slightly lower winning history compared to other months. The Core has been on an amazing run this year and may be due for some rough sailing. Both GOOG and INTC have perfect records for the month and QQQ is not far behind. Note that we only have 4 data points for INTC, but mentioned it for its 100% winning history for the month. Pay keen attention to Dave's commentary.  As always, make money and happy trading!

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