March 2015 Core Strategy Pre-Trade Analysis

Friday March 13th 7:00 AM Posted in: Daily Blog

Historical Option Performance for March

The Core Strategy maintains the slightly elevated statistical performance seen in February with exception to a significantly lower winning history (down 16%). At 70%, the winning history is actually the lowest of the year (as of this writing). All other statistics remain virtually the same to the previous month, but their importance is undermined by the low history.

This trend continues as we examine the winning history at common returns in the table to the right. Note how low the winning history is for just a 10% return. Be mindful of this statistic when investing this month. To play on The Hunger Games, the odds aren't exactly in your favor (for large returns).

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Key Stats

  • 112 Total trades
  • 79 Winning trades
  • 70.54% Winning history
  • 81.88% Average return

Winning history at common returns
Return Winning History
10% 67%
20% 63%
30% 60%
40% 55%
50% 53%
75% 46%
100% 35%

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Historically successful picks

Contrary to the overall statistics, there are at least a couple of stocks that show strong performance for the month. AAPL and IBM stand out as the best performers based on their wining history and average return.

Stock Plays Wins Winning History Average Return
AAPL 8 7 87.50% 91%
AMZN 5 4 80.00% 77%
DIA 14 9 64.29% 80%
EBAY 5 3 60.00% 108%
IBM 9 8 88.89% 108%
QQQ 11 6 54.55% 40%
SPY 7 5 71.43% 54%

Remember, no matter how great the statistics are or how good past trades were, you must set realistic limit orders to trade this strategy profitably. We highly recommend member's focus on our own target profit goals! As always, make money and happy trading!

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