February 2015 Core Strategy Pre-Trade Analysis

Friday February 13th 7:00 AM Posted in: Daily Blog

Historical Option Performance for February

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February significantly improves all statistics for the Core Strategy. Coming off the lows from the previous month, we see a healthy rebound for both the winning history and average return. Of particular interest is the winning history which lands right in line with overall statistics for the strategy and provides a much welcomed reprieve for those options traders who are more risk averse. Additionally, while significantly higher than January, the average return remains a bit below the mean compared to the same statistic for other months.

Turning our attention to our first table (below), it is clear we should focus on the low end to midpoint of our target profit. Returns up to 40% fall within a reasonable winning history while seeking gains greater than that figure may prove problematic.

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Key Stats

  • 116 Total trades
  • 100 Winning trades
  • 86.21% Winning history
  • 82.99% Average return

Winning history at common returns
Return Winning History
10% 84%
20% 74%
30% 66%
40% 59%
50% 55%
75% 41%
100% 33%

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Historically successful picks

Several stocks stand out as good choices for February with some phenomenal winning histories. Do keep the low average return in mind for AMZN, GOOG, and YHOO.

Stock Plays Wins Winning History Average Return
AAPL 7 6 85.71% 74%
AMZN 7 6 85.71% 55%
BRCM 5 5 100.00% 91%
DIA 12 11 91.67% 85%
EBAY 5 5 100.00% 139%
GOOG 6 5 83.33% 38%
IBM 9 7 77.78% 69%
QQQ 11 10 90.91% 71%
YHOO 5 5 100.00% 42%

Remember, no matter how great the statistics are or how good past trades were, you must set realistic limit orders to trade this strategy profitably. We highly recommend member's focus on our own target profit goals! As always, make money and happy trading!

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