08/01/2013 Morning Blog

Futures are way up this morning. Should you buy or wait?? Today is one of those days that are fairly predictable being the first of the month, money comes into mutual funds and IRA's and gets deployed into the market. The larger question is can we take out yesterday's high failure in the market and continue upward. On the surface it looks like it is ready for lift off but try to absorb the chart of the day. If we do not take out and hold yesterday's bar this rally could truly be over. Some are calling for 1700 on the SPX cash as a top and we will be within a whisper of that at the open. I am not saying we are going one way or the other but at this point the Fed has spoken, the ECB held interest rates steady and tomorrow is the biggest number of all the all important unemployment numbers at 8:30.

Today we get new car sales figures which should be strong

There was conflicting data out of China overnight on their PMI- The official measure shows expansion (over 50) and an independent survey from HSBC comes in with a drop from the prior month reading of 48.2 to 47.7 showing contraction in the economy.

Secondly the Eurozone factory PMI expanded for the first time in 2 years rising to 50.3 (expansion) versus last months reading of 48.8 (contraction)

So, which way will it go, rip to new highs or head fake a higher high and drop for a short while? Fund managers are behind the curve on profits for their clients so they may be very aggressive on any market pullbacks.

Have a great day everyone.