July Core Strategy Pre-trade Analysis

Wednesday July 6th 10:58 PM Posted in: Daily Blog

Historical Performance for July

Monthly performance for July is very optimistic.  The lifetime winning history for July is an astounding 95.33%, which is our best performing month in terms of winning history.  July also boasts an impressive 122.55% average yield.

July lifetime winning history at common returns:

Return Winning History
10% 89.72%
20% 85.98%
30% 83.18%

Historically Successful July Picks

Many stocks have high historical performance for the month of July and most have been traded with a high frequency:

Stock Frequency Winning History Average Return
AAPL 5 100% 214.52%
AMZN 7 85.71% 158.30%
BCRM 6 100% 91.81%
DIA 8 100% 112.88%
EBAY 6 83.33% 73.62%
GOOG 5 100% 66.30%
IBM 8 100% 128.02%
QQQ 9 100% 155.96%
WYNN 5 100% 151.42%

Statistical Expectations for July

Statistically, July is by far the strongest month for the Core Strategy.  Unfortunately 2011 has been unusually tough for the strategy.  We are currently boasting a 73.68% winning history for the year which is notably lower than the 80+% winning history we typically enjoy.   If our winning history continues to hold true, we should begin seeing more consistent winning months and July would be an excellent candidate to begin this trend.  Any of the aforementioned stocks should be strong plays based on their stellar records.  QQQ is of course a standout play with DIA and IBM closely behind.  AAPL should prove lucrative with its class leading average return, however OI did not begin playing AAPL in the Core Strategy until 2006 so we do not have a great deal of historical data for the stock.

These recommendations are independent of Dave's monthly core picks and are intended to provide traders with a framework to build upon.

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