December 2020 Monthly Options Analysis

Friday December 11th 12:51 PM Posted in: Monthly Options Analysis

Key Stats

138

Total
trades

114

Winning
trades

83%

Winning
history

74%

Average
return

Analysis

Past Monthly Options trades for December show a slight improvement when compared to the previous month as demonstrated by all of the key performance indicators. One thing to note is a lower number of recorded trades vs the previous month.

December has been quite good in previous years and has maintained a winning history that is perfectly inline with the strategy as a whole. We recorded major losses in 2002, 2011 and had a mixed bag in 2007. Additionally, the average return is 24% above the high end for our target profit range.

The risk v. reward chart below shows a rather interesting trend in the profit and winning history. Note that past Decembers have outperformed the strategy as a whole at 30% sought return, but then underperforms at higher returns. This could mean December is a "take the money and run" kind of month.

Risk vs Reward

Successful Picks

StockPlaysWins
AAPL9889%62%
AMZN141393%72%
AVGO6467%42%
DIA161381%95%
GOOG7686%53%
IBM10880%43%
QQQ171588%75%
SPY5480%68%
YHOO55100%81%

Trade Recommendations

Trade conservatively, and perhaps more so than normal. December seems to be a lukewarm month at best. There is nothing particularly outstanding about our trade history here for the better or worse. That puts this month square in the 8 out of 10 trades are winners modality, just remember, that statistic usually plays out as entirely winning months vs entirely losing,  the mixed bag from 2007 is an extremely rare case for any month.

Target Profit Recommendations

The data seems to indicate that past months are best pursued in this manner with a focus on the lower end of our target profit range.

50%

Target Profit
Per option trade

Make up to a 50% return or better from our option trades by following our profit targets.

77%

Time-tested
winning history

Make up to a 50% return or better from our option trades by following our profit targets.

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