January 2019 Monthly Analysis

Monday 1/21 - Post Analysis

Early weakness in the market gave those that entered a half size position Friday and added the other half Monday did very well. The rally really started to catch hold Wednesday through Friday on China tariff talk and setting a date for the second N. Korea summit. January is known to be the weakest month for expiration week and up till Wednesday it proved to be just that. Brighter months are ahead.

Results

Date Type Stock Len High C
01/18/19 M QQQ 5D 189%
01/18/19 M AAPL 5D 144%
01/18/19 M TSLA 5D -6%
01/18/19 M DIA 5D 272%
01/18/19 M WYNN 5D 22%
01/18/19 M IBM 5D 130%

Friday 1/11 - Pre-Trade Analysis

Our analysis of past performance for January yields a fairly bleak outlook. Historically, this has been one of the most difficult months for our monthly options strategy. Part of the issue with January is a lower overall number of trades, however, there is no escaping the reality that the month vastly under performs the monthly strategy as a whole. Even a cursory glance at the risk v. reward chart sums up the month in entirety.

Going into the trades this month, we recommend exercising caution. Pay close attention to the commentary when it is published this afternoon and take any returns as soon as they are presented. We will update this post after the trade week to recap the performance.

Key Stats

127

Total
trades

93

Winning
trades

73%

Winning
history

59%

Average
return

Risk vs Reward

Successful Picks

Keep in mind we may no longer trade options for some of the stocks listed here.

StockPlaysWinsWinning HistoryAverage Return
AAPL66100.00%111%
AMZN9666.67%70%
BIDU6583.33%86%
BRCM6466.67%89%
DIA141071.43%49%
IBM8675.00%66%
QQQ11872.73%34%
WYNN66100.00%162%
YHOO5360.00%17%

Remember, no matter how great the statistics are or how good past trades were, you must set realistic limit orders to trade this strategy profitably. We highly recommend member's focus on our own target profit goals! As always, make money and happy trading!

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