March 2014 Core Commentary

Once again it’s time to trade. The world is in a bit of turmoil at this time with several issues on the forefront. I’m sure I do not have to spell each of them out as they have been all over the news in the past week. There is a major vote in the Ukraine on Sunday which the outcome is pretty well determined. The question is what will the United States do in response? Charts are in terrible shape. Yesterday we put in many outside reversal candles/bearish engulfing candles, neither are good unless overcome in a day or two. Weekly charts are rolling over and the overall picture remains down. This month will be heading to the put side, not something we do very often but when conditions dictate that is what prudent investors do. The only fly in the ointment is something unexpected from Russia easing up on Ukraine or delaying the vote which would sky rocket our markets, it’s not expected but crazier stuff has happened. Again as I say every month plays come out at 3:30pm et, today they can be bought around 3:45pm et as I expect a selloff into the close. As per the March Pre trade analysis blog lays out, your best chance of success is in the 25-50% range. Set your limit orders and no initial stop losses. Too many people worry about the downside while forgetting to book profits on the upside. Best of luck to all.