November 2019 Monthly Options Strategy Analysis

Key Stats

Analysis

November practically mirrors the performance of October with statistically identical data. The only notable difference is a slightly lower average return (72% vs. 81%) for the month. A review of the trade history shows mostly positive returns throughout the years, however, in 2018 almost all of the trades were losing positions.

Thought it may seem counter-intuitive, statistically, the recent losses are a positive indicator. The strategy holds at approximately 80% winning history overall and previous November trades. In order for the averages to maintain consistency over time the strategy has to produce losing trades 1/5th of the time. One way to view last year's losers is that they were representative of that losing 1/5th of trades. In other words, the likelihood of back-to-back losing months are highly unlikely even in the context of year over year.

Target Profit Recommendation

Trade this month conservatively. Focus on exits on the lower end of our target range of 30% - 40% as soon as they are presented.

Risk vs Reward

Monthly Option trades in past years have absolutely under performed the strategy as a whole.

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