October 2020 Monthly Options Trade Analysis

Analysis

The trade analysis for past October reveals the month has slightly underperformed the strategy as a whole. Key statistics show an 80% winning history with 131 winning trades out of 164 dating back to 2002. A review of past trades show mostly winning years with intermittent losses but mostly losers in 2018 and 2014. This is perhaps best summarized in the successful picks table below which is void of any picks with a 100% winning history (highly uncommon for the strategy).  On the upside, the average return for trades in October sits 34% above the upper end of our target profit.

Risk vs Reward

October underperforms the strategy as a whole.

Successful Picks

Trade Recommendations

October has proven to be a mixed bag for the Monthly Options strategy. Just last year, four of the eight picks were exception winners, three of the eight were within our target profit range, and IBM produced only 7%.  This pattern seems to repeat in many years past. It seems the pursuit of modest gains is the best path for managing this month.

Target Profit Recommendations

We recommend maintaining our standard target profit rate of 30% - 50% for this month.