March 2019 Monthly Options Strategy Analysis

Post-Trade Analysis
Monday 3/18

What a fantastic week for our monthly trades. Looking back to last Friday 3/8 when I was looking over the markets, they looked bleak, having been down 5 days in a row from a double top. Market commentators and chart masters were calling for the end of the bull market Friday evening. Knowing the facts about our core trades (as spelled out in the Commentary) combined with an excellent timing newsletter https://www.mcoscillator.com/ who was calling for a strong move beginning 3/6. I knew we were due for a strong up move. The Federal Reserve Chairman’s interview on 60 Minutes reiterated a dovish stance and that was the spark that lit the fire. Over the weekend we had a terrible plane crash involving a Boeing (BA) airliner, this alone dragged the Dow down some 350 points at the open but the Nasdaq was higher along with most of our trades. Boeing could not hold the Dow down as it clawed back to close positive Monday. Wednesday I heard an interesting nugget from Jim Cramer on CNBC stating this time period over the past 17 years the U.S. Dollar typically goes lower, this typically gives rise to multinational companies, something to keep in our database for next March. The markets chopped around Thursday then on Friday, the thrust upward continued, breaking us out above resistance at 2815 on the SPX, and closing out the second best week of the year. After such a strong week and a market that typically declines the week after Triple-Witching we should get some excellent plays for our weekly trades. We are moving into the strongest part of the year for our service so stay tuned for more great plays.

Results

Pre-Trade Analysis
Friday 3/8

March continues on the improvements seen last month. The overall outlook is more on par with the strategy as a whole. What is rather interesting about this particular month appears in the higher return ranges where March actually slightly outperforms the strategy as a whole. It is difficult to discern any meaningful alteration to the standard approach for trading this month other than if we have an above average month, the options very well may yield higher than normal returns. Only time will tell.

Of course, we will always advocate for looking for exits in our target range of 30% - 50% returns as soon as they are presented. We will update this post after the trade week to recap the performance.

Risk vs Reward

Note how March slightly outperforms at approximately 75% return.

Successful Picks

No consistent winners here, but look at the average return for WYNN... Yes... "Average" return. Keep in mind we may no longer trade options for some of the stocks listed here.

Remember, no matter how great the statistics are or how good past trades were, you must set realistic limit orders to trade this strategy profitably. We highly recommend member's focus on our own target profit goals! As always, make money and happy trading!