September 2014 Core Strategy Pre-Trade Analysis

Friday September 12th 8:00 AM Posted in: Daily Blog

Once a month, Options-Intelligence uses its vast options trading history to generate key statistics to aid our Core Options Trading Strategy members. These statistics are designed to arm option trades with invaluable information and insight into the the trends and expectations for the upcoming option trading cycle.

Historical Option Performance for September

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Just when you think that the Core Strategy can't get any better, it does. When you look at the stats (to the right) one of the first things you will notice is the sheer volume of trades for September: 122 to be precise. That number is literally double the amount for August (as of this writing). The high number of recorded trades is a significant amount of data and all of that data points to a potentially phenomenal month. In that context, the better than 85% winning history and nearly 140% average return seem more attainable than ever.

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  • 122 Total trades
  • 106 Winning trades
  • 86.89% Winning history
  • 136.94% Average return

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Historically successful picks

September boasts a ton of successful picks, a total of 10 as of this writing. What could that mean? Considering we usually push no more than 10 picks for the Core, it means they are usually all winners. September is one of those throw crap against the wall and see what sticks (usually anything will) months.

[do action="cs-stats-stock" month="9"/]


 

Statistical Expectations for September

If you read last month's pre-trade analysis, you'll notice we are in a bit of pickle determining which month is the best to trade the Core. It isn't that the stats for September are bad, in fact they are great, its that August had a higher average return and winning history, but September has twice the recorded trades. We've got to take that into consideration and give the nod to September on anticipated performance simply because there is way more proof to warrant it.

Winning history at common returns

We really favor returns up to 40% for September.  The table below shows that even a 40% return has been achieved nearly 7 out of 10 times. That's pretty damn hard to argue with and should be a tolerable limit order for anyone's taste.

[do action="cs-winning-history-month" month="09"/]


Remember, no matter how great the statistics are or how good past trades were,  you must set realistic limit orders to trade this strategy profitably. We highly recommend member's focus on our own target profit goals! As always, make money and happy trading!

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