July 2013 Core Strategy Pre-trade analysis

Friday July 12th 11:14 AM Posted in: Daily Blog

Once a month, Options-Intelligence uses its vast options trading history to generate key statistics for our Core Options Trading Strategy members. These statistics are designed to arm option trades with invaluable information and insight into the the trends and expectations for the upcoming option trading cycle.

Historical Option Performance for July

Despite a terrible performance in 2011, July remains very optimistic for option trading.  The lifetime winning history for July is an astounding 89% (down 6.81%), which remains our best performing month for the Core Options Trading Strategy.  July also boasts an impressive 113% (down 9.87%) average return.

July lifetime winning history at common returns

These are suggested exit points for the Core Options Trading Strategy and the chance to achieve these returns based on the historical performance:

Return Winning History
10% 84%
20% 80%
30% 78%
40% 73%
50% 66%

Historically Successful July Option Picks

Many stocks have high historical performance for the month of July and most have been traded with a high frequency:

Stock # of Trades Winning History Average Return
AAPL 7 86% 157%
AMZN 9 78% 145%
BCRM 6 100% 92%
DIA 10 90% 100%
EBAY 6 83% 74%
GOOG 5 100% 66%
IBM 10 90% 120%
QQQ 11 91% 140%
WYNN 6 83% 123%

Expectations for July

July remains the best month for options trading (based on historical data). The Core Strategy is currently rocking an 80% winning history, which is notably higher (up 7%) than this time two years ago. I am optimistic to see what happens this year.

These recommendations are independent of Dave’s monthly core picks and are intended to provide traders with a framework to build upon.

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